论文洞庭湖流域降雨和降雨极值时空分布与风险变化是大学硕士与本科洞庭湖毕业论文开题报告范文和相关优秀学术职称论文参考文献资料下载，关于免费教你怎么写洞庭湖方面论文范文。
摘 要 洞庭湖流域是我国洪涝灾害最严重的地区之一,对当地农业生产、经济建设和生态环境造成了巨大的影响.研究降雨极值的规律和风险,对当地防洪抗灾具有重要指导意义.本文结合MK检验、概率模型和移动窗口法,基于降雨量（R）、平均降雨强度（Ri）、暴雨天数（R50）和年最大日降雨量（Rx1）为指标,研究了1960—2013年期间洞庭湖流域降雨变化规律及极值的风险特征.结果显示,洞庭湖流域平均年降雨量以-5.6 mm/decade的速率下降,且其中夏季和冬季降雨量上升,春季和秋季下降.然而,Ri、R50、Rx1均呈现总体上升的趋势（P>0.05）.概率（风险）分析结果表明,Ri、R50和Rx1的五年一遇值（Ri5、R505和Rx15）均呈现东北高西南低的规律,说明流域东北部洪水风险较高,另外,Ri5、R505和Rx15在总体上呈现显著的上升趋势（P<0.05）.这些结果表明,即使流域内降雨量无显著变化（P>0.05）,但降雨有集中的趋势（Ri上升）,极端降雨事件逐渐增强（R50、Rx1上升）,洪灾风险显著上升（P<0.05）.
关键词 降雨极值； 降雨； 风险； 洞庭湖
中图分类号 P333文献标识码 A文章编号 10002537（2016）02001006
SpatialTemperal Variation and Risks of Precipitation
Extremes in Dongting Lake Catchment
ZHANG Xiaoyan1, LIU Meixian2,3*
（1. School of Education Science, Hunan First Normal University, Changsha 410205, China；
2. Key Laboratory for Agroecological Processes in Subtropical Region, Institute of Subtropical Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changsha 410125, China；
3. Huanjiang Observation and Research Station for Karst Ecosystem, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Huanjiang 547100, China）
Abstract The Dongting Lake catchment is a flood prone region in China. Hey floods he brought out huge detrimental impacts on agriculture, economy and ecosystem in this region. Knowledges of the spatial and temporal characteristics and occurrence risks of precipitation extremes are essential for disaster management and hazards mitigation. Based on the daily precipitation dataset of 1960 to the year of 2013, in this study, we investigated spatialtemporal patterns and the occurrence risks of precipitation and precipitation extremes in Dongting Lake catchment, by using statistical analysis of MK test, probability distribution and 30year moving windows. Four indices, such as the annual precipitation amount （R）, the annual mean precipitation intensity （Ri）, the torrential rain days （R50） and the max 1day precipitation amount （Rx1） were employed in this study. Our results showed that the total amount of precipitation has significantly increased in summer and winter, but decreased in spring and autumn. The regional annual mean precipitation has been decreasing at the rate of -5.6 mm/decade in the past decades. Our results indicated that Ri, R50 and Rx1 exhibited an overall increasing trend, though the trends were generally not significant. Our probability results showed that, the 5year return levels of Ri, R50 and Rx1 （Ri5, R505 and Rx15） had demonstrated a clear tendency of increment from southwestern part to northeastern part in the catchment, indicating that the northeastern part has been suffered from high risks of floods. Moreover, our results also find that the values of Ri5, R505 and Rx15 he significantly increased at most of the stations. These results imply that the chance of precipitation extremes is being in the proces of enhancement, and the risks of floods will increase significantly. These tendencies are likely to result in additional pressures on the local government to flood disasters mitigation in this region.
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参考文献：
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