论文迷之自信打哪儿来是关于自信方面的的相关大学硕士和相关本科毕业论文以及相关自信心的自我训练论文开题报告范文和职称论文写作参考文献资料下载。
One day in 1995, a large, heavy middle-aged man robbed two Pittsburgh banks in broad daylight. He didn’t wear a mask or any sort of disguise. And he smiled at surveillance cameras before walking out of each bank. Later that night, police arrested a surprised McArthur Wheeler. When they showed him the surveillance tapes, Wheeler stared in disbelief. “But I wore the juice,” he mumbled. Apparently, Wheeler thought that rubbing lemon juice on his skin would render him invisible to videotape cameras. After all, lemon juice is used as invisible ink so, as long as he didn’t come near a heat source, he should have been completely invisible.
Police concluded that Wheeler was not crazy or on drugs—just incredibly mistaken.
The saga2 caught the eye of the psychologist David Dunning at Cornell University, who enlisted his graduate student, Justin Kruger, to see what was going on. They reasoned that, while almost everyone holds favourable views of their abilities in various social and intellectual domains, some people mistakenly assess their abilities as being much higher than they actually are. This“illusion of confidence” is now called the “DunningKruger effect”, and describes the cognitive bias to inflate self-assessment.
To investigate this phenomenon in the lab, Dunning and Kruger designed some clever experiments. In one study, they asked undergraduate students a series of questions about grammar, logic and jokes, and then asked each student to estimate his or her score overall, as well as their relative rank compared to the other students. Interestingly, students who scored the lowest in these cognitive tasks always overestimated how well they did—by a lot. Students who scored in the bottom quartile3 estimated that they had performed better than two-thirds of the other students！
This “illusion of confidence” extends beyond the classroom and permeates everyday life. In a follow-up study, Dunning and Kruger left the lab and went to a gun range, where they quizzed gun hobbyists about gun safety. Similar to their previous findings, those who answered the fewest questions correctly wildly overestimated their knowledge about firearms. Outside of factual knowledge, though, the Dunning-Kruger effect can also be observed in people’s self-assessment of a myriad4 of other personal abilities. If you watch any talent show on television today, you will see the shock on the faces of contestants who don’t make it past auditions5 and are rejected by the judges. While it is almost comical to us, these people are genuinely unaware of how much they have been misled by their illusory superiority.
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参考文献：
1、 高管过度自信、过度悲观和研发投资行为 【摘 要】 以2009—2015年创业板企业为研究对象，探讨高管过度自信、过度悲观与研发投入之间的关系。研究发现，不同的高管情绪会对企业的研发投。
2、 消费贷流入楼市迷踪 最近，笔者听一个在某银行北京分行做个金的朋友说，他们行里对消费信贷余额超过20万的客户，现在都要盯着交能证明消费用途的发票、收据、转账凭证、合同。
3、 高铁在飞，超级火车迷踏上开往春天的绿皮车 随着中国高铁时代全面开启，规模庞大的退役绿皮车究竟去了哪儿？车厢被直接切割成废钢废铁卖，岂不可惜？杭州一位精明的火车发烧友瞅准巨大商机，通過拍卖。
4、 美国人为啥迷上了高压锅 我有个迷恋中餐的美国朋友，这一年来他的爱好是每个周末做一锅肉，还不时分享他新发现的神秘武器：Instant Pot。简单来说，那就是高压锅。对。
5、 共享汽车迷乱江湖 车企、资本、互联网公司等各方势力先后入局，平台渴求战略资源协同，但目前盈利模式尚不明晰《财经》记者从多个投资机构了解到，下半年将有十亿元计的社。